UPDATE (3/27): Odds for all cards (including Legendaries) have now been confirmed! Check out the update post here!
If you’re reading this post, then it probably means that you’re playing Clash Royale, you have already landed yourself a Magical Chest and some Epic Cards, and you’re wondering when the $#@& you will get your next one from a Treasure Chest. Well know this first of all: there is a team of highly talented product managers and number crunchers working at Supercell that has this down to a science in order to start forking out money for the game. Well, they got me, because I found myself putting my first investment into the game by buying a Pouch of Gems with their Epic Sunday promotion (Goblin Barrel! Baby Dragon!)
While no one other that those who work at Supercell will know what the actually odds are, the pricing of the individual cards actually hints at what they might be. As it stand now (I wouldn’t be surprised if this changes once the game is launched worldwide), for the first purchase, a common card costs 3 Gold, rare card costs 40 Gold, and Epic card costs 2000 Gold. If we purchase one common card, then the second would cost 4 Gold, which conveniently both 40 and 2000 are multiples of. If we use these Gold amounts as a ratio for guessing what are the odds are to draw such a card in the Treasure Chest, you would get the following percentages (% chance per card drawn, not per chest opened):
- Common: 90.7%
- Rare: 9.1%
- Epic: 0.2%
Of course, this does not apply to Golden Chests and Magical Chests as they guarantee Rare and Epic Cards, making them all the more valuable. So using the same logic, can we estimate the chances of getting a free Golden Chest or Magical Chest based on their prices? The answer is a definitely NO. I’m guessing that you all probably have received one and only one free Magical Chest up to this point (if you have received more than one, then please tell me!). I believe this is specifically programmed by Supercell to 1) motivate you to keep playing by giving you a bunch of good cards only once, and 2) motivate you to spend Gems to buy a Magical Chest, after seeing how awesome they are. Perhaps players will get a second Magical Chest after hitting another milestone in the game which I have not reached yet (I’m current at ~1100 Trophies), but it’s more than likely that the only way you’ll open another Magical Chest is by actually paying for one.