Odds for Epic Cards

Clash Royale icon

UPDATE (3/27): Odds for all cards (including Legendaries) have now been confirmed!  Check out the update post here!


 

If you’re reading this post, then it probably means that you’re playing Clash Royale, you have already landed yourself a Magical Chest and some Epic Cards, and you’re wondering when the $#@& you will get your next one from a Treasure Chest.  Well know this first of all: there is a team of highly talented product managers and number crunchers working at Supercell that has this down to a science in order to start forking out money for the game.  Well, they got me, because I found myself putting my first investment into the game by buying a Pouch of Gems with their Epic Sunday promotion (Goblin Barrel! Baby Dragon!)

Epic Sunday

While no one other that those who work at Supercell will know what the actually odds are, the pricing of the individual cards actually hints at what they might be.  As it stand now (I wouldn’t be surprised if this changes once the game is launched worldwide), for the first purchase, a common card costs 3 Gold, rare card costs 40 Gold, and Epic card costs 2000 Gold.  If we purchase one common card, then the second would cost 4 Gold, which conveniently both 40 and 2000 are multiples of.  If we use these Gold amounts as a ratio for guessing what are the odds are to draw such a card in the Treasure Chest, you would get the following percentages (% chance per card drawn, not per chest opened):

  • Common: 90.7%
  • Rare: 9.1%
  • Epic: 0.2%

Of course, this does not apply to Golden Chests and Magical Chests as they guarantee Rare and Epic Cards, making them all the more valuable.  So using the same logic, can we estimate the chances of getting a free Golden Chest or Magical Chest based on their prices?  The answer is a definitely NO.  I’m guessing that you all probably have received one and only one free Magical Chest up to this point (if you have received more than one, then please tell me!).  I believe this is specifically programmed by Supercell to 1) motivate you to keep playing by giving you a bunch of good cards only once, and 2) motivate you to spend Gems to buy a Magical Chest, after seeing how awesome they are.  Perhaps players will get a second Magical Chest after hitting another milestone in the game which I have not reached yet (I’m current at ~1100 Trophies), but it’s more than likely that the only way you’ll open another Magical Chest is by actually paying for one.

 

13 Comments

  1. Bome

    I got my Second magical chest yesterday.

    Reply
    1. Clash Royale

      how long have you been playing this game?

      Reply
      1. Clash Royale

        Bome how long have you been playing this game if you’ve played it for like a month that it means that the chest drops on this website http://pastebin.com/rkU51EBR is correct if not then it means its wrong so pls tell me if you’ve palyed the game for 1 month or less

        Reply
        1. Wagonut (Post author)

          Personally I’ve played since almost the beginning, and have opened 4 Magical Chests, so it sounds about right

          Reply
          1. Prakyath

            I have played for about 3 weeks and got a magical and a giant chest both of them containing an epic. And since yesterday, I got 3 epic cards(3 epics in 1 day) 2 skel.army and 1 lighting in 2 silver chests and 1 free chest.

          2. Wagonut (Post author)

            Thanks for sharing Prakyath. The number of Epics you are getting seem about right. Keep in mind that each chest gives you a lot of cards, so the odds represent how many epics you will get per card that you receive from chests that is not guaranteed (ie. 4 epics per 1000 cards as per latest information)

    2. Jayden

      Got my third magical today

      Reply
  2. alex

    there is an order, in 240 chests you recieve, 3 are magical, that is 1.25 chance

    Reply
    1. Wagonut (Post author)

      Thanks for dropping by! Yes that was my first post and I saw the 240 chest theory shortly afterwards. Still I think the percentage of obtaining an Epic card for regular chests is at about a 0.2% rate – so for every 1000 cards you get (including duplicates) about 2 are Epics, if they are not guaranteed.

      Reply
    2. hey there

      But it’s not a chance because it’s actually a cycle. Of the 240, the 12th, 132nd, and 204th are magical chests.

      Reply
  3. Richard wang

    I’ve gotten. 4

    Reply
  4. Pingback: Odds for Epics AND Legendary Cards in Clash Royale |

  5. elijah

    I have actually relieved a super magical chest for free. It was arena 2. I have also received about 7 magic and giant chests free. I am currently in the lower half of arena 7. About 2100 trophies.el

    Reply

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